We will divide our reflections into three points:
- the first concerns the institutional aspects, which are obviously also political,
- the second concerns what could be called a half-full glass,
- the third concerns what is instead a glass half empty with many contradictions and silences.
As far as the political and institutional aspects are concerned, we are faced with an obvious evolution of the rules laid down in the Treaty because Ursula von der Leyen
- has asserted a pre-eminent role for herself that goes beyond the principle of “primus inter pares”,
- corrected and sometimes modified the suggestions she received from governments on ‘portfolios’,
- used politicisation in the formation of the Commission to her advantage,
- she has definitively set aside the division of competences through a debate among the members of the Commission, thus excluding the collegiality of decision-making that took place in the past and up to the Santer Commission,
- and worked on finding a political balance with the aim of strengthening her position vis-à-vis the European Parliament.
Despite the governments’ hostility, Ursula von der Leyen succeeded in maintaining a relative balance between men and women (11 women compared to the previous twelve out of 27) with 4 women Vice-Presidents and two men.
Ursula von der Leyen has willingly adapted to the fact that these five years have seen a considerable increase in centre-right governments and that the EPP has strengthened in the European elections with the consequence that there will now be fourteen EPP Commissioners, i.e. they make up the majority of the team compared to nine in the previous legislature.
The Commissioners from the Socialist area, however, obtain two ‘weighty’ posts among the six Vice-Presidents, i.e. the first Vice-President Teresa Ribera will be responsible for the just ecological transition with the goal of implementing the European Green Pact and decarbonisation to which is added the responsibility for competition, while the Romanian Commissioner Roxana Mînzatu will have the responsibility for vocational training together with culture and education but above all the European Pillar of Social Rights with the task of presenting a postponement in spring 2025 (but without the word employment).
A number of new portfolios have been set up, in particular that of economic security entrusted to the Slovak socialist Maros Šefčovič, of the circular economy entrusted to the popular Swedish Jessika Roswall, of housing linked to energy to the Danish socialist Dan Jørgensen, of intergenerational equity to the Maltese socialist Glenn Micallef, of simplification to the popular Latvian Valdis Dombrovskis who will be in charge of economy and productivity under the control of the President, of the Mediterranean to the popular Croatian Dubravska Šuica, of civil protection with reference to resilience and crisis management preparedness to the Belgian liberal Hadja Lahbib with the second but secondary competence of the “Union of equality”.
In many cases, the Commissioners will have to answer directly to the President, as the role of what were in the previous Commission the ‘coordinating’ Vice-Presidents has been severely weakened, if not cancelled, and it is not clear whether the so-called clusters will be maintained.
In indicating the Commissioners’ missions, Ursula von der Leyen assigned precise tasks that cover the first hundred days of the Commission’s work and that can be read in the twenty-six mission letters.
Of course, we will have to wait for the outcome of the hearings currently scheduled from 4 to 12 November, which could – as in the past when eight candidates ‘fell’ – reserve some surprises and thus lead to a change in the composition and in the portfolios of the College before the plenary vote on the entire Commission, which will have to be by a majority of the votes cast.
So far, the glass is what we could call with a good dose of optimism half full.
However, the glass is certainly half-empty because the division of competencies and mission letters highlight.
- the fragmentation of the issue of democracy and the fight against corruption along with the protection of the rule of law (Virkkunen, Brunner, McGrath)
- the unfortunate reiteration of the unification of the responsibilities of home affairs and migration policy with the consequence of the confirmation of the predominantly security approach that emerges clearly in the mission letter to the Austrian People’s Commissioner Magnus Brunner (already contested in the European Parliament) and the references to border control in the other competences
- the separation between justice and the rule of law on the one hand and home affairs on the other, weakening or making it very difficult to complete the area of freedom, security and justice
- the scattering of competences in environmental matters among 4-5 commissioners (Ribera, Kadis, Jorgensen, Tsitzikostas and above all the Dutch Hoekstra) even though Ursula von der Leyen has promised to confirm the European Green Pact, decarbonisation, the 2040/2050 deadlines and the importance of the Sustainable Development Goals. How will Raffaele Fitto behave, if he is confirmed as Commissioner, between the commitment of his new president von der Leyen and the demolition attempt of his outgoing president Meloni?
As was to be expected, the defence theme would appear to be limited to industrial issues by entrusting Vice-President Kallas with the role of ‘guarantor’ of the bridge between internal and external policies and the Commission’s geopolitical role, but the popular Lithuanian Commissioner Andrius Kubilius, who has been entrusted with this new portfolio, has indulged in belligerent statements on military issues that go beyond his remit.
We will conclude for now with two points:
- The Polish EPP’s Commissioner Piotr Serafin has been entrusted not only with the budget, the fight against fraud and Public Administration, but also with the preparation of the Multiannual Financial Framework with the competence of own resources under the control of the President, but no commitment has been made to transform the objectives set out in Mario Draghi’s report into adequate financial instruments and instead Ursula von der Leyen has relied on the ‘good will’ of the member States
- Despite the mandate given by the European Council to the Commission on the preparation of a report on the reform of the Union by spring 2025 as a follow-up to the Conference on the Future of Europe, the subject has not been entrusted to any Commissioner, with the consequence of the personal responsibility of the President of the Commission. She will have to indicate in her investiture speech to the College what response she wants to give on the revision of the Treaties also with a view to Enlargement, bearing in mind that even Mario Draghi considers that institutional changes are not a ‘precondition’ for achieving the objectives set out in his report. So, the idea of a constituent role of the European Parliament should remain in the future agenda of the Chamber.
The vote on the individual Commissioners will take place by secret ballot in the parliamentary Committees on substance and in the Committee on Legal Affairs: apart from extemporaneous declarations, we do not know how the MEPs will express themselves at the end of the hearings, since the vote will be expressed by political groups, while we will know how the MEPs in the Chamber will express themselves individually and as groups in the vote on the whole College.
25 September 2024
Pier Virgilio Dastoli