The Concept
Civil society in Poland is at a turning point. After years of operating under the pressure of various crises and within a funding system ill-suited to its needs—one that relies on public funds—the organisations within it are showing signs of fatigue. The working environment within organisations is unfavourable, working conditions are uncompetitive, and leadership is often in crisis. Organisations also lack opportunities to develop the skills needed to adapt to rapidly changing conditions and utilise new technologies.
At the same time, an armed conflict is raging just across the border, which – particularly in terms of the information sphere – has long since crossed Poland’s borders, presenting civil society organisations with additional challenges and putting the people working within them under pressure. Solutions have still not been found for other existential threats, such as the climate or demographic crises, whilst new ones are emerging on the horizon, such as those linked to the economic consequences of the conflict in the Middle East. All this is influencing the dynamics of deepening socio-political tensions in the country, potentially increasing divisions and political uncertainty in the coming years.
This forces organisations to take a close look at their own situation and consider strategies for future action. To seek guidance on this path together, we have decided to undertake a foresight study of civil society in Poland. As part of a participatory process with a group of civil society organisations from various parts of the sector, we will attempt to identify alternative development scenarios until 2036. In our work to determine the directions for the sector’s further development, we will take into account the most important trends – including social, cultural, economic, informational and technological ones – that may influence the functioning of civil society in the future. We will not stop there, but will also consider how to prepare for those versions of the future that we favour.
As a result, we will provide actors in the civil society sector with knowledge and tools to help them develop more effectively and prepare for future action. The findings from the foresight exercise will also enable us to formulate recommendations regarding the support needed by civil society organisations and to identify systemic solutions that will ensure greater stability for the entire sector.
Stages of work:
- Three expert panels – to begin with, we will hold a wide-ranging discussion among invited leaders and activists. The aim will be to ‘open minds’ and map the landscape of change in order to generate as many hypotheses about the future as possible. Both obvious trends and potential disruptions that could destabilise the sector by 2036 will be identified (theses and “weak signals”).
- Real-Time Delphi – the conclusions from the panels will be evaluated in an online survey involving a broad group of several dozen experts. Participants will assess the impact and likelihood of the identified phenomena. This will make it possible to separate information noise from facts and identify ‘key uncertainties’, i.e. factors that will have a decisive, though difficult-to-predict, impact on the future.
- Scenario building – based on data from the Delphi stage, at least four alternative, coherent narratives will be developed regarding what Poland and civil society might look like in 2036. As a result, we will not attempt to predict ‘one’ future, but will create a range of possibilities. This will allow us to envisage various scenarios.
- Implementation – the scenarios will not only be summarised in a report, but above all translated into a practical tool for internal management within the organisation. The self-reflection mechanism developed in this way will allow every civil society organisation in Poland to compare its current strategy or action plan with the scenarios developed.
We invite you to join us in reflecting on what possible futures await us and how we can prepare for them to make our lives at least a little better!
You can follow updates on our work on this WEBSITE.
For further information contact us at: fpazderski@batory.org.pl.